The 2025 Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult Swiss Watch Report: A Tale of Market Polarization and Ultra-Premiumization
The watch industry is experiencing a fascinating shift, as revealed by the latest report from Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult. This in-depth analysis highlights a growing trend of market polarization, where a select few brands dominate the landscape, while others struggle to keep up. But it's not just about the top brands; the report also sheds light on the ultra-premiumization of the market, where high-end watches are becoming increasingly desirable.
Market Polarization: The Rise of the Top 4
The report reveals a stark contrast in the watch industry. While the total number of active Swiss watch brands is estimated to be around 450, the top 4 brands (Rolex, Cartier, Audemars Piguet, and Patek Philippe) account for over 50% of the market in 2025. This is a significant increase from 55% in 2024 and 52.4% in 2023. These brands, often referred to as 'The Big 4', have shown remarkable resilience, even in a challenging economic environment. Despite market uncertainties, they continue to perform strongly, with Rolex leading the pack.
Rolex's Dominance: A Closer Look
Rolex, in particular, has been a key player in this market polarization. The report notes that Rolex has been proactively managing scarcity to maintain its brand desirability. As a result, Rolex's volumes declined by a modest -2% to 1.1 million watches in 2025, marking the first time in over 20 years that Rolex's volumes declined for two consecutive years. This strategic approach has allowed Rolex to maintain its position as the top brand in the industry.
Struggles of the Rest: A Diverse Picture
However, not all brands are thriving. The report identifies 10 brands within the Top 50 that experienced a turnover contraction of 15% or more in 2025. These include Longines, Swatch, Hamilton, Blancpain, Breguet (all part of the Swatch Group), Panerai and Roger Dubuis (part of Richemont), Zenith (part of LVMH), Girard-Perregaux, and Franck Muller. Omega, once the second-largest brand behind Rolex, has now dropped to the fifth position due to declining sales and faster growth among its competitors.
Ultra-Premiumization: A Growing Trend
The report also highlights the ultra-premiumization of the market. Watches priced above CHF 50,000 accounted for 37% of export value and contributed 89% of total growth in 2025, despite making up only 1.4% of volumes. This trend suggests that the ultra-luxury segment is not only surviving but thriving, while the core range of Swiss watches faces challenges.
Independent Watchmakers: A Rising Force
Interestingly, high-end independent watchmakers continue to flourish. Brands like F.P. Journe, H. Moser & Cie., and MB&F have shown revenue growth in 2025. Additionally, Christopher Ward has made its mark as one of the few mid-range independent watchmakers to increase its value, joining the top 50 brands.
Key Takeaways and Further Exploration
This report offers a comprehensive overview of the Swiss watch industry's current state. For more detailed insights, readers are encouraged to explore the work of Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult. The numbers provided are estimates and not direct figures from the brands, adding a layer of depth to the analysis.
To learn more, visit Morgan Stanley (https://www.morganstanley.com/) and LuxeConsult (https://www.luxeconsult.ch/). Stay tuned for further updates on the ever-evolving world of luxury watches.
